Alimentation Couche-Tard - Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis

Performance Highlights

Alimentation Couche-Tard reported Q3 FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS of CAD $0.81, up 19.1% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA grew 14.7% and merchandise and service revenues increased 6.6% to approximately $18.4 billion on a year-to-date basis. U.S. same-store merchandise sales rose 2.8%, the strongest result in more than two years, with Canada and Europe posting gains of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive comps across all regions.

The standout operating driver was broad-based category strength in the U.S., where energy drinks delivered mid-teens growth, modern oral nicotine grew in the high single digits, food same-store sales expanded in the mid-to-high single digits, and packaged beverages rose approximately 5%, with meal deal volumes reaching 13.3 million bundles in the quarter. U.S. fuel margins expanded to $0.4771 per gallon, up $0.0343 year-over-year, while Inner Circle loyalty membership reached 13.7 million, with monthly active app users up 46% year-over-year.

Management Outlook and Forward Catalysts

Management reaffirmed its Core + More strategy, targeting at least 750 new sites by 2030, CAD $850 million in incremental EBITDA savings by fiscal 2030, and normalized SG&A growth converging toward inflation, with year-to-date expense growth already tracking at 3.3%. The self-distribution buildout, now covering approximately 3,200 stores across six North American facilities, is positioned as a multi-year margin catalyst, though material P&L benefits are not expected until beyond the current ramp phase.

The central investor debate heading into Q4 centres on whether U.S. merchandise momentum — including approaching double-digit food comps and sustained traffic growth across nearly all business units — can persist against a backdrop of rising fuel prices, stretched consumers, and geopolitical uncertainty, while bears will monitor U.S. merchandise gross margin pressure from cigarette mix and DC pre-opening costs, which management flagged may persist through Q1 FY2027.