América Móvil - Q1 2026 Earnings Analysis

Performance Highlights

América Móvil reported Q1 2026 total revenue of MXN 236.8 billion, up 2.1% in peso terms and 6.1% at constant exchange rates, beating consensus expectations on both revenue and earnings. Net income rose 25.1% to MXN 23.4 billion, with EPS of MXN 0.39 per share and USD 0.44 per ADR, compared with MXN 0.31 and USD 0.30 a year earlier, driven by a 12.7% increase in operating profit and a 9.9% decline in comprehensive financing costs.

The single most important operating driver was postpaid subscriber growth, with 3.1 million net adds in the quarter lifting the postpaid base 8.8% year-on-year to 146 million; Brazil alone contributed 1.3 million. EBITDA reached MXN 94.5 billion, up 8.0% at constant exchange rates, with the margin expanding to 39.9%, as faster EBITDA growth than service revenue confirmed growing operating leverage. Colombia posted mobile service revenue growth of 10.2%, its strongest in a decade, while Mexico's mobile service revenue rose 5.7%, the best in two years.

Management Outlook and Forward Catalysts

Management signalled that the business is in a compounding-returns phase, with operating leverage accelerating EBITDA ahead of service revenue, capex declining year-on-year to MXN 21.6 billion from MXN 24.7 billion, and net debt falling to MXN 437 billion at 1.41x EBITDAaL. The Board has proposed an ordinary dividend of MXN 0.54 per share and allocated an additional MXN 10 billion to the buyback programme for April 2026 to April 2027, reinforcing a capital-return orientation.

The central investor debate centres on whether currency headwinds from peso appreciation will continue to mask underlying constant-currency momentum, and whether the pending Desktop acquisition in Brazil will dilute near-term free cash flow or accelerate Claro's fixed-broadband leadership in São Paulo. Bulls will focus on the prepaid revenue acceleration, Colombia's margin inflection, and declining capex intensity; bears will watch Mexican peso volatility, regulatory approval timelines for Desktop, and any deterioration in Argentina's hyperinflationary operating environment.