OCP Group - Q4 FY2025 Earnings Analysis

Performance Highlights

OCP Group reported FY2025 revenue of MAD 113,943 million (US$12.27 billion), up 17% year-over-year, beating expectations on the top line, while EBITDA rose 11% to MAD 43,198 million (US$4.62 billion) with a 38% margin, slightly below the 40% achieved in 2024 as higher raw material costs weighed on profitability. Basic EPS declined to MAD 206.43 from MAD 240.49 in 2024, driven by a sharply higher tax charge of MAD 12,732 million versus MAD 4,863 million the prior year.

The single most important operating driver was the accelerated shift toward customized, higher-value fertilizer solutions, with TSP volumes surging 48% year-over-year to represent 30% of fertilizer export revenues, up from 22% in 2024, led by strong demand from India and Brazil. Fertilizers accounted for 68% of total revenues at US$8.3 billion (+23%), phosphate rock revenues jumped 60% to US$1.6 billion on higher export volumes, while phosphoric acid revenues fell 9% as OCP deliberately redirected output downstream.

Management Outlook and Forward Catalysts

Management framed the outlook around a structurally tighter global supply environment, citing China's extended export restrictions through August 2026, ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, and CBAM-related European headwinds as factors that reduce competitive pressure while sustaining elevated fertilizer prices. OCP's US$1.75 billion bond issuance, oversubscribed more than four times, and a €350 million AFD green financing agreement signal that the Group is entering an accelerated phase of its 2030 capacity investment program targeting 15 Mt of phosphate rock at Mzinda-Safi and 25 Mt at Meskala-Essaouira.

The central investor debate for Q1 2026 centers on whether OCP can defend its 38% EBITDA margin as sulfur prices remain structurally elevated and leverage rises to 2.76x net debt to EBITDA from 2.53x at end-2024, while bulls will focus on TSP demand momentum in India and Brazil during the critical application window and the earnings uplift potential from Phase II of the Jorf Lasfar TSP Hub once its two one-million-ton lines reach full production.