TotalEnergies - Q1 2026 Earnings Analysis

Performance Highlights

TotalEnergies reported Q1 2026 adjusted net income of $5.4 billion, up 29% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter, beating consensus expectations alongside CFFO of $8.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $12.6 billion. Revenues from sales reached $49.5 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, with the integrated model capturing the full benefit of Brent averaging $81.1 per barrel, up 7% versus Q1 2025. The single most important operating driver was the combination of 4% organic production growth — led by new project ramp-ups at Mero 3, Mero 4 and Lapa SW in Brazil, Anchor in the United States, and Mabruk in Libya — fully offsetting approximately 100 kboe/d of Middle East conflict-related losses. Refining and Chemicals delivered a standout result of $1.6 billion adjusted net operating income, more than five times Q1 2025 levels, driven by a 92% refinery utilisation rate and an ERM of $11.4 per barrel, while Integrated LNG contributed $1.3 billion supported by 12% production growth and strong trading activity.

Management Outlook and Forward Catalysts

Management signalled continued momentum, guiding Q2 2026 LNG selling prices of approximately $10 per barrel, with European TTF forward prices at $14–15 per Mbtu supporting the LNG outlook, and confirmed full-year net investment guidance of $15 billion. The EPH transaction closing in late April, adding 10 TWh of net power production and over $500 million of available cash flow, marks a key milestone toward Integrated Power achieving positive free cash flow by 2027. The central investor debate for Q2 centres on whether Middle East production — currently representing roughly 15% of total output, or around 360 kboe/d — can be restored within the guided two-to-three month restart window, which is the primary swing factor for both production volumes and earnings. Bears will focus on geopolitical tail risk, the SATORP refinery running at reduced 230 kboe/d capacity, and rising gearing to 15.5%, while bulls will watch for production recovery optionality, sustained high oil prices above $100 per barrel, and the accretive LNG and renewables growth pipeline.