Usiminas - Q1 2026 Earnings Analysis

Performance Highlights

Usiminas reported Q1 2026 net revenue of R$5.87 billion, down 5% quarter-on-quarter and 14% year-on-year, missing on the top line as steel sales volumes declined 7% to 1.0 million tonnes and iron ore volumes fell 21% to 1.9 million tonnes. Despite the revenue shortfall, Adjusted Consolidated EBITDA reached R$653 million — a 56% sequential improvement — lifting the EBITDA margin to 11.1% from 6.8% in Q4 2025, while net income surged 596% quarter-on-quarter to R$896 million, benefiting from R$101 million in net foreign exchange gains.

The single most important driver was the Steel Unit's pricing and mix improvement, with net revenue per tonne rising 4.9% sequentially as automotive segment sales expanded to 33% of domestic mix from 27.1% in Q4 2025, while COGS per tonne fell 1.8% aided by Brazilian real appreciation against the U.S. dollar; Steel Unit Adjusted EBITDA jumped 140% to R$544 million. The Mining Unit contributed R$111 million in Adjusted EBITDA, down from R$185 million in Q4 2025, as lower volumes and weaker realisations compressed margins to 14% from 19%.

Management Outlook and Forward Catalysts

Management guided for stable steel sales volumes in Q2 2026, with net revenue per tonne expected to improve but COGS facing pressure from raw materials, energy, and freight; the Mining Unit is expected to recover volumes while absorbing higher maritime freight costs, with Adjusted Consolidated EBITDA guided to remain broadly stable sequentially. These signals suggest Usiminas views itself in a transitional phase, with February's antidumping duties on cold-rolled and coated imports beginning to structurally rebalance the domestic competitive environment.

The central investor debate is whether the antidumping-driven volume recovery materialises fast enough to offset raw material cost headwinds and sustain EBITDA above R$650 million, with bulls pointing to the normalisation of elevated import inventories, improving automotive demand, and net cash of R$391 million providing balance sheet optionality, while bears focus on the 8% year-on-year volume decline, ongoing export weakness, and the integration risks following Ternium's acquisition of Nippon Steel's and Mitsubishi's controlling stake in February 2026.